JACKSONVILLE MARKET REPORT · SEPTEMBER 2026
Jacksonville Housing Market Update: September 2026 Final Report
Buyers aren't simply waiting. Purchasing power is moving.
DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2026
FINAL REPORT
Homes By Hogans' updated September market-statistics review identified 1,063 Duval County residential sales during September 2026, compared with 1,087 in September 2025—a decline of approximately 2.2%. Across July through September, the current RealMLS monthly-statistics series records 3,339 sales versus 3,400 one year earlier, a decline of approximately 1.8%. These figures reflect the latest available monthly-statistics dataset; the separate listing-level price-band and ZIP-code analysis uses its documented October 2 snapshot.
Market Data Revision — October 2026: This report has been updated to reflect the RealMLS monthly market-statistics dataset available in October 2026 for Duval County residential properties. Selected September sales, pricing, inventory, and pending-activity figures and their year-over-year comparisons have been revised. The original publication date is preserved. The separate ZIP-code and price-band analysis continues to use the documented October 2 listing-level snapshot.
The Short Answer
Jacksonville recorded slightly fewer closed residential sales in September than one year earlier. The revised decline is substantially smaller than originally reported. Looking beyond the headline, transaction distribution by price range and ZIP code offers additional context about how purchasing power intersects with available homes.
September Market Scorecard
Duval County · Residential Sales (RealMLS Monthly Statistics)
Closed sales
1,063
vs. 1,087 in September 2025
▼ −2.2%
Median sold price
$320,990
vs. $312,450 in September 2025
▲ +2.7%
Average sold price
$408,687
vs. $379,364 in September 2025
▲ +7.7%
Average days on market
57.5
vs. 74.4 in September 2025
Active listings
4,648
vs. 5,272 in September 2025
▼ −11.8%
New listings
1,472
vs. 1,570 in September 2025
▼ −6.2%
Pending listings
753
vs. 1,140 in September 2025
▼ −33.9%
Taken together, these indicators do not describe a housing market experiencing the same conditions at every price point. They point to a market in which purchasing power, available inventory and price are increasingly important to understanding where transactions are still occurring.
From August to September
August showed a slower market without collapsing prices. September's updated monthly statistics show a modest 2.2% year-over-year decline in closed sales, while the median sold price remained above September 2025. The separately documented listing-level analysis continues to examine how transactions were distributed across Duval County price ranges.
Where Jacksonville Buyers Are Purchasing
- Below $200,000: 596 Jul–Sep 2026 listing-level closings vs. 671 in 2025 (−11.2%).
- $200,000–$399,999: 1,837 vs. 1,861 (−1.3%).
- $400,000+: 1,013 vs. 1,017 (−0.4%).
The middle price range did not grow in absolute transaction count. Instead, it lost far less activity than the lower end and therefore represented a larger share of listing-level closings. Homes priced from $200,000 through $399,999 accounted for approximately 53.3% of the 3,446 Jul–Sep 2026 Duval listing records in this snapshot, compared with approximately 52.4% of 3,549 records one year earlier. The $400,000+ segment was essentially flat, so the countywide evidence supports middle-market concentration and lower-end contraction—not broad two-sided compression.
Three-Month Transaction Mix: 2025 vs. 2026
The middle corridor did not gain transactions; it lost substantially less activity than the lower end and therefore captured a larger share of the Jul–Sep market.
Homes By Hogans Market Observation: Affordability Corridor Compression
Homes By Hogans describes Affordability Corridor Compression as increasing transaction concentration around the portion of a housing market where available inventory and household purchasing power continue to intersect. In some local submarkets, that concentration can be accompanied by contraction on both sides of the corridor; countywide Duval data should not be assumed to show that stronger two-sided pattern.
The distinction matters: Duval County as a whole currently shows increasing middle-market concentration, but not equal contraction on both sides of the corridor. The stronger two-sided compression pattern appears in individual Jacksonville ZIP codes.
The market may not simply be paused. It may be repricing purchasing power.
ZIP Code 32219
From July through September 2026, 32219 recorded 7 closings below $200,000, 155 between $200,000 and $399,999, and only 2 at $400,000 or above. One year earlier those counts were 15, 146 and 12. Approximately 94.5% of 2026 closings fell inside the $200,000–$399,999 corridor, versus about 84.4% in 2025. This is one of the clearest localized examples in the audit because activity contracted at both tails while the corridor captured a substantially larger share.
32219: A Localized Compression Example
Unlike the countywide pattern, 32219 shows contraction on both sides of the $200K–$399,999 corridor, making it a stronger localized example of Affordability Corridor Compression.
ZIP Code 32211: A Corroborating Example
32211 provides corroborating evidence of the localized pattern. Jul–Sep sales declined from 115 in 2025 to 92 in 2026. Closings below $200,000 fell from 22 to 10, $400,000+ sales fell from 8 to 4, while the $200,000–$399,999 corridor accounted for approximately 84.8% of 2026 transactions versus 73.9% one year earlier. Other Jacksonville ZIP codes do not show this same pattern, so Affordability Corridor Compression should be treated as a submarket observation rather than a uniform countywide condition.
Mortgage Rates Are Moving Purchasing Power
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.43% on July 2, 2026. By September 24 it had risen to 7.03%. The comparable late-September 2025 reading was 6.30%. Rates therefore changed substantially during the same three-month period examined in this report.
Higher rates do not necessarily eliminate a household's need to move. They can change the price, location, square footage or amenities that fit the household's monthly housing budget.
The buyer may still exist. The buyer's purchasing power has moved.
Wondering what that rate shift means for your budget? See what today's payment could support.
Why This May Not Be Simply a Waiting Game
Some buyers undoubtedly are waiting for rates, prices or economic conditions to change. But waiting alone is an incomplete explanation for the transactions that are still occurring. Families grow, jobs change, people relocate, renters purchase and homeowners downsize. Economic conditions can change what a household can afford without eliminating why that household needs housing.
The market may not simply be paused. It may be repricing purchasing power.
What This Means for Jacksonville Home Buyers
For buyers, the useful question may be less about predicting exactly when rates or prices will change and more about understanding where current purchasing power intersects with homes actually available today. Income matters, but so do monthly debts, mortgage rates, property taxes, homeowners insurance, down payment, financing structure and other housing expenses. Estimate how much house your current purchasing power may support in Jacksonville.
See What Today's Payment Could Support
Use Ménage Mortgage's Jacksonville affordability resource to translate income, debts, rate and housing costs into a practical price range.
Check Purchasing PowerWhat This Means for Jacksonville Home Sellers
Broad Jacksonville statistics may not accurately describe the competition surrounding an individual property. Location, price range, competing inventory and the purchasing power of buyers shopping within that specific submarket all matter. Pricing decisions should therefore be based on the property's actual competitive market rather than Jacksonville-wide headlines alone. Request a Jacksonville home valuation to evaluate your property against its current competition.
What Is Your Home Competing Against?
A Jacksonville-wide median cannot price an individual property. Compare your home with its current local competition.
Get a Home ValuationWhat Homes By Hogans Is Watching in October
Affordability Corridor Compression is an observation to test, not assume. Homes By Hogans will continue tracking whether concentrated transaction ranges expand, contract, move higher or lower, appear in additional Jacksonville submarkets, or disappear as rates, inventory and household purchasing power change.
Sources & Methodology
Homes By Hogans used two RealMLS data products for different purposes. The September headline scorecard uses RealMLS monthly market statistics for Duval County residential property. The price-band and ZIP-code analysis uses listing-level closed residential records with CloseDate from July 1–September 30, comparing 2026 with the same 2025 period. The October 2 listing-level snapshot contained 3,446 2026 records and 3,549 2025 records; its eight price bands reconcile to those totals.
The listing-level search and RealMLS monthly-statistics product are separate datasets, so their transaction totals are not interchangeable. The September headline scorecard and July–September monthly-sales comparison have been refreshed using the RealMLS monthly-statistics series accessed in October 2026. The ZIP-code and price-band analysis retains the documented October 2 listing-level snapshot. Mortgage-rate context comes from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. MLS records can subsequently be corrected or updated.
“Affordability Corridor Compression” is a descriptive term used by Homes By Hogans for the localized market pattern discussed in this analysis. It is not presented as an established academic or industry-standard economic classification.
Market Report History
Previous completed report: August 2026 Jacksonville Housing Market Update. Each completed monthly report remains available as a historical record so readers can follow how Northeast Florida housing conditions change over time.
About the Author
Marshawn Hogans, REALTOR® — Homes By Hogans | Dalton Wade Inc. Marshawn Hogans provides residential real estate services and market analysis for buyers and sellers throughout Northeast Florida.